Joseph Carlson on Microsoft (MSFT): the quotes, dated.
14 dated quotes about Microsoft stock (MSFT), selected from all 120 Joseph Carlson videos published since 2025-09-10 — a selected record, not the complete history. Each links to the exact second on YouTube, with MSFT’s close that day and what the stock did since.
Every quote is reproduced word for word from the video and linked to the second it was said. Covers Joseph Carlson’s videos through .
- MSFT close, 2026-11-02
- $507.12
- Price since the first forecast, Mar 11, 2026
- +25.3%
- S&P 500 (SPY), same period
- +11.2%
- vs the S&P 500
- +14.1 pp
- Latest stance, Nov 2, 2026
- Price target
- Mentions found
- 852 in 93 of 120 videos
The short version
In September 2025 Joseph Carlson said Microsoft had become their fourth-largest position and described buying it when heavily discounted and holding it when expensive. In January 2026 they saw better opportunities and preferred Google. In February 2026 they reported buying Microsoft and called it cheap. In March 2026 they called it one to add to. In April and May 2026 Carlson called it a fantastic buy that was worth holding, while Google was the larger position. In July 2026 they called it uniquely ideal below $400. In August 2026 they acknowledged pressure from Claude but did not sell, and they set a $400 buy level. In September 2026 they reported a $109,000 position. In November 2026 they set a $550 price target and said the stock was trading closer to fair value.
Summary of the quotes on this page. Updated .
What Joseph Carlson said last · Nov 2, 2026
Price target
“And here we are at $500 plus dollars, and I still believe the company is undervalued, but this one I believe is trading a bit closer to its fair value. I put Microsoft's fair value or my price target at 550, meaning it has around 6 7% upside from today.”
Bullish call · Price rose
The price rose since the first bullish quote.
MSFT from to . Price movement, not the creator’s realized return.
Price up since 11 of 14 quotes · Stock ahead of SPY: 10 of 14
Leaderboard result: Beat the market (6 months, → ). Scored from the first close after the video, . How it is scored
Joseph Carlson’s price target and valuation calls on MSFT
A price target, a fair-value estimate and a price worth buying at are different things. Each line below quotes which one was said, and when.
Valuation view
Next up we have Microsoft. This one is number seven, a $109,000 position, 55K in the green so far. It's trading at a 26 forward PE ratio. These are not expensive numbers.
Price target
And here we are at $500 plus dollars, and I still believe the company is undervalued, but this one I believe is trading a bit closer to its fair value. I put Microsoft's fair va…
Price and the calls
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
MSFT · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-08-11 → 2026-11-02 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-29 | $507 |
| 2025-09-30 | $518 |
| 2025-10-31 | $518 |
| 2025-11-28 | $492 |
| 2025-12-31 | $484 |
| 2026-01-30 | $430 |
| 2026-02-27 | $393 |
| 2026-03-31 | $370 |
| 2026-04-30 | $408 |
| 2026-05-29 | $450 |
| 2026-06-30 | $373 |
| 2026-07-31 | $465 |
| 2026-08-31 | $507 |
| 2026-09-30 | $513 |
| 2026-10-30 | $522 |
| 2026-11-02 | $507 |
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
MSFT · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-08-11 → 2026-11-02 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-29 | $507 |
| 2025-09-30 | $518 |
| 2025-10-31 | $518 |
| 2025-11-28 | $492 |
| 2025-12-31 | $484 |
| 2026-01-30 | $430 |
| 2026-02-27 | $393 |
| 2026-03-31 | $370 |
| 2026-04-30 | $408 |
| 2026-05-29 | $450 |
| 2026-06-30 | $373 |
| 2026-07-31 | $465 |
| 2026-08-31 | $507 |
| 2026-09-30 | $513 |
| 2026-10-30 | $522 |
| 2026-11-02 | $507 |
What Joseph Carlson said, when
- 1
— Disclosed holding
2:23 “After Costco, we have Microsoft. This one's made its way to number four. You can see the size is just bigger than Google.”
- 2
— Conditional
11:44 “Microsoft has been great for the portfolio. It's another company where I buy it when it's heavily discounted and I hold it when it's expensive.”
He is describing his buying and holding criteria, not announcing a new purchase.
- 3
— Mention
15:33 “When I look at Microsoft, I just keep thinking there's better opportunities. Personally, right now, I'm glad that my Google position is much larger. I think Google has an easier chance to grow faster in the future.”
Ahead of Microsoft's earnings report, he discussed Anthropic's Claude working inside Excel as a threat to Microsoft's seat-based software revenue.
- 4
— Disclosed buy
1:47 “These four companies, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, are the four companies out of the seven big tech companies that I own. I'm going in heavy on the big tech capex trade. I'm buying these stocks left and right. And I believe three of them, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, are cheap.”
He contrasted his own buying with Michael Burry and analysts who are skeptical of big tech capital spending.
- 5
— Buying the dip
21:12 “When I look at Microsoft, I see it as a very healthy company. It has some real concerns, but I believe that those are already reflected in the price. Right now, Microsoft is an opportunity to buy at this company much closer to fair value or at undervalued ranges. It's one to be adding to.”
He was discussing a 20 to 25% sell-off in Microsoft driven by concerns over capex, the OpenAI relationship and AI competition with its software, with the stock at a 23 forward P/E.
- 6
— Hold, bullish
8:01 “I'm already in the green, and I've held Microsoft for a long time, but I agree with the comments. This one is a fantastic buy today. Microsoft likely will have compounded returns above the market going forward.”
- 7
— Disclosed holding
22:35 “So, I think that Microsoft obviously is super powerful. I'm bullish on the company. But as I'm invested in both of these companies, you'll see that the position sizing shows what I'm bullish on.”
He was comparing Microsoft with Google ahead of their earnings. He said Google's cloud is superior and that he holds Google as a 15% position and Microsoft as a 6.5% core holding.
- 8
— Hold, bullish
24:46 “Now, if I see things evolve in a negative way for Microsoft, I could believe Chris Hohn's side more, but as of right now, I feel like it's worth the hold. I'm going to continue holding Microsoft, and I believe there's a good chance the multiples will actually increase.”
He was responding to Chris Hohn's sale of Microsoft over AI concerns. He said Microsoft was a smaller position for him and that he was more bullish on Google, Amazon and Meta.
- 9
— Buying the dip
16:13 “The last of the big tech that I believe is uniquely ideal right now is Microsoft. It continues to trade below $400 per share. That puts Microsoft at below a 20 forward PE ratio.”
In a list of stocks to buy in July, he said Microsoft was being sold along with other non-semiconductor stocks and that its valuation had fallen to a five-year low.
- 10
— Risk acknowledged
14:06 “I think that there is some pressure on Microsoft with Claude. They are dealing with something that is interacting with their software and certainly transitioning some of the value to Claude's interface. But, I'm not so concerned about Microsoft that I'm going to be selling my position.”
He was discussing Chris Hohn's exit from Microsoft over concerns that Claude and other AI tools could pressure Microsoft Office, and said he agreed with some of those concerns.
- 11
— Conditional
15:55 “For Microsoft to get that $10,000, I will need it to drop down to $400 per share from the 490 that it currently trades at.”
He was going through which of his holdings would get his next $10,000 purchase, which goes to whichever stock reaches his buy level first. He described Microsoft as his eighth-largest position.
- 12
— Hold, bullish
34:57 “The reason that I have both of these companies still in the portfolio today, and I've been buying Meta like crazy, because not only I believe the valuation is good, but Microsoft and Meta are likely well insulated and even beneficiaries of Agent technology”
He was discussing how AI agents could affect Microsoft and Meta, after describing Microsoft as an agentic operating system built around work identity and permissions.
- 13
— Valuation view
15:56 “Next up we have Microsoft. This one is number seven, a $109,000 position, 55K in the green so far. It's trading at a 26 forward PE ratio. These are not expensive numbers.”
He was going through his largest portfolio positions in order.
- 14
— Price target
12:58 “And here we are at $500 plus dollars, and I still believe the company is undervalued, but this one I believe is trading a bit closer to its fair value. I put Microsoft's fair value or my price target at 550, meaning it has around 6 7% upside from today.”
In a video setting price targets for every holding, Carlson described Microsoft as holding number six, a $110,000 position, and recalled first buying it around $200 to $220.
Other creators on MSFT
- Adam KhooNot buying more+1.2%
- Everything MoneyRisk acknowledged+10.3%
- Business with BrianValuation view+0.0%
- Sven CarlinValuation view+37.0%
- Jeremy LefebvreNamed as a pick+17.0%
- Daniel PronkMention+26.9%
- Tom NashValuation view+3.1%
More from Joseph Carlson
All 20 companies →Joseph Carlson has spoken on camera about their own MSFT position; the latest, : Position. See it in the disclosed holdings →
- Amazon AMZNPrice target+10.6%
- ASML ASMLValuation view+9.4%
- Costco COSTConditional+9.4%
- Duolingo DUOLPrice target-52.7%
- Alphabet GOOGLPrice target-17.5%
- Mastercard MAPrice target+22.4%
How to read this
Quotes are short excerpts from Joseph Carlson's public YouTube videos, attributed to the speaker and linked to the timestamp. “Close that day” is MSFT's split-adjusted closing price on the day the video was published (New York time); if markets were closed that day, the last close before it. If the stock has split since a quote, the card shows the price it traded at that day and, beneath it, the split-adjusted close the % change uses. “Since” compares that close with the latest close on 2026-11-02. It is a price observation, not the creator's realized return, and not investment advice. How the price change is calculated. Next to it we show SPY, the ETF tracking the S&P 500, over the same two dates — so a move can be read against the market rather than on its own: why we compare with SPY. Each quote also carries a label — Named as a pick, Risk acknowledged, Reducing — describing what kind of statement it was: see what the labels mean.
Coverage: 120 of 120 videos published since 2025-09-10 covered; 852 Microsoft mentions found. Prices as of 2026-11-02.
Independent record — not affiliated with or endorsed by Joseph Carlson. Request a correction or removal