Joseph Carlson on ASML (ASML): the quotes, dated.
12 dated quotes about ASML stock (ASML), selected from all 116 Joseph Carlson videos published since 2025-09-10 — a selected record, not the complete history. Each links to the exact second on YouTube, with ASML’s close that day and what the stock did since.
Every quote is reproduced word for word from the video and linked to the second it was said.
- ASML close, 2026-10-19
- $1,647.12
- Price since the first forecast, Jan 22, 2026
- +18.1%
- S&P 500 (SPY), same period
- +11.2%
- vs the S&P 500
- +6.9 pp
- Latest stance, Sep 28, 2026
- Hold, bullish
- Mentions found
- 493 in 63 of 116 videos
The short version
In September 2025 Joseph Carlson called ASML undervalued with room to $1,000, later downgrading it to a soft buy. In December 2025 they rated it fair value. In January 2026 they held without adding, expecting good returns. In April 2026 they moved it from buy to hold on valuation. In May 2026 they held a $140,000 position. In June 2026 they said it was going to $2,000, then trimmed 10%, reallocating to DoorDash and Uber. In July 2026 they explained trims on rising valuation and downplayed China's DUV threat. In August 2026 they set a $1,200 buy-in target, and in September 2026 kept holding despite higher valuation.
Summary of the quotes on this page. Updated .
What Joseph Carlson said last · Sep 28, 2026
Hold, bullish
“China has made up an increasingly smaller portion of the overall mix, which de-risks the investment in the future. Because if you believe that China is risky for ASML, well, it's less risky today. It's gone from 50% down to 14. So, there's simply less exposure to it. So, despite the higher valuation, I'm continuing to hold this one.”
Bullish call · Price rose
The price rose since the first bullish quote.
ASML from to . Price movement, not the creator’s realized return.
Price up since 6 of 12 quotes · Stock ahead of SPY: 5 of 12
Leaderboard result: Beat the market (6 months, → ). Scored from the first close after the video, . How it is scored
Joseph Carlson’s price target and valuation calls on ASML
A price target, a fair-value estimate and a price worth buying at are different things. Each line below quotes which one was said, and when.
Price target
So this is one that I continue to believe is undervalued. It's not at an extreme low, but I believe the ASML could trade up to $1,000. I think that's relatively fair.
Valuation view
I believe that ASML has moved from a strong buy to a soft buy. I still believe it's undervalued, but it's getting closer to that category of just being a hold.
Valuation view
When I look at ASML, I certainly don't think it's dislocated. Uh, I don't think it's at the premium valuation. I'm going to put this one in the fair value today.
Valuation view
ASML trades at a 35 forward P/E, a less than 2% free cash flow yield. It's just simply more expensive today. A lot of the bright future is being priced in. And for me, that move…
Price target
ASML, that's up another 1.76% and ASML is at almost $1,900 per share. This stock is going to 2,000.
Price and the calls
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
ASML · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-08-13 → 2026-10-19 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-29 | $743 |
| 2025-09-30 | $968 |
| 2025-10-31 | $1059 |
| 2025-11-28 | $1060 |
| 2025-12-31 | $1070 |
| 2026-01-30 | $1423 |
| 2026-02-27 | $1451 |
| 2026-03-31 | $1321 |
| 2026-04-30 | $1439 |
| 2026-05-29 | $1613 |
| 2026-06-30 | $1989 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1629 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1696 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1812 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1647 |
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
ASML · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-08-13 → 2026-10-19 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-29 | $743 |
| 2025-09-30 | $968 |
| 2025-10-31 | $1059 |
| 2025-11-28 | $1060 |
| 2025-12-31 | $1070 |
| 2026-01-30 | $1423 |
| 2026-02-27 | $1451 |
| 2026-03-31 | $1321 |
| 2026-04-30 | $1439 |
| 2026-05-29 | $1613 |
| 2026-06-30 | $1989 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1629 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1696 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1812 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1647 |
What Joseph Carlson said, when
- 1
— Price target
9:50 “So this is one that I continue to believe is undervalued. It's not at an extreme low, but I believe the ASML could trade up to $1,000. I think that's relatively fair.”
Part of a list of high-quality companies he considered undervalued. He had just said ASML was more insulated from cyclicality than most companies in its industry.
- 2
— Valuation view
12:16 “I believe that ASML has moved from a strong buy to a soft buy. I still believe it's undervalued, but it's getting closer to that category of just being a hold.”
He noted the shares had risen above $900 after he had called them undervalued at around $700.
- 3
— Valuation view
31:11 “When I look at ASML, I certainly don't think it's dislocated. Uh, I don't think it's at the premium valuation. I'm going to put this one in the fair value today.”
This came from a DCF valuation segment on popular stocks, with ASML at about $1,100 per share.
- 4
— Hold, bullish
15:09 “As of right now this is a hold for me. It's a company that I'm not adding to the position, but I'm still holding and I anticipate that ASML stock will continue to give good returns.”
He was going through his portfolio, where ASML was his fifth-largest holding.
- 5
— Valuation view
14:12 “ASML trades at a 35 forward P/E, a less than 2% free cash flow yield. It's just simply more expensive today. A lot of the bright future is being priced in. And for me, that moves this stock from a buy to a hold.”
He was reviewing ASML's Q1 2026 earnings, including the raised 2026 revenue guidance.
- 6
— Hold, bullish
7:23 “ASML sells big machines used for long periods of time with continual maintenance. And that is why I invest in ASML. It's because I believe it's more durable seller. My position today in ASML looks like this. It's a $140,000 position with $78,000 in the green. It's already a fairly large position, but I continue to hold every share.”
Discussing which semiconductor-related companies are cyclical versus durable, he contrasted ASML's long-lived machines and service contracts with one-time memory sales.
- 7
— Price target
2:37 “ASML, that's up another 1.76% and ASML is at almost $1,900 per share. This stock is going to 2,000.”
He was going over the day's moves in his portfolio holdings.
- 8
— Reducing
6:39 “In fact, last Friday was the first time I've ever sold a share of ASML. And I just trimmed the position by 10%. So, my position size was around $165,000, and I sold $16,000 and reallocated that $16,000 with $8,000 a piece to DoorDash and Uber.”
He tied the trim to the rise in valuation and said he was not bearish and was keeping most of the position.
- 9
— Reducing
19:43 “And I trimmed both of these because I believe that ASML has ran up a lot. The valuation has climbed. And even though I believe that fundamentally speaking, the company's great and the moat continues to be extraordinary, I believe it's warranted to take some off the table when you see valuations rise this high this fast.”
He said that over the past month he had trimmed ASML twice, once around $1,900 per share and once around $1,750. He noted it traded at a 45 P/E.
- 10
— Risk acknowledged
38:56 “So the fact that they have a limited supply, the yield is likely much lower and they're even ramping up supply much lower than what ASML is already doing and these are the legacy machines, I believe should be reassuring to ASML investors. In fact, I don't believe that this really threatens the moat all that much.”
He was discussing a report that ASML stock fell about 7% because China is making its own DUV machines.
- 11
— Conditional
13:50 “ASML's one of my favorite stocks ever. I really love this company. It's so cool what they're doing. But I have to set a buy-in target at $1,200.”
He was setting buy targets for his holdings. At $1,200, with his assumptions, he estimated a 15.2% return.
- 12
— Hold, bullish
14:38 “China has made up an increasingly smaller portion of the overall mix, which de-risks the investment in the future. Because if you believe that China is risky for ASML, well, it's less risky today. It's gone from 50% down to 14. So, there's simply less exposure to it. So, despite the higher valuation, I'm continuing to hold this one.”
Going through his largest holdings, he described ASML as a $126,000 position and talked about how its sales mix has moved away from China.
No quote added since · 5 later videos from Joseph Carlson · covers videos through
Also disclosed on the portfolio page
Joseph Carlson’s own ASML trades from videos this timeline does not quote. They are listed, not counted: the price change and the call record above use the quotes only.
— Bought
“just 2 months ago, I said that I was bullish on ASML and I bought $15,000 of the stock at $750 per share. My total gains in the company now are above $20,000”
— Trimmed
“As much as I love the qualities behind ASML, I believe the valuation is very stretched today, and so I've actually been trimming a little bit of my position, despite the fact it's been one of my best performers”
— Bought
about a trade after that sell-off“I bought the stock after that sell-off. It bolstered my gains in ASML. It was sub $700 share prices that we were buying at that time.”
Other creators on ASML
More from Joseph Carlson
All 16 companies →Joseph Carlson has spoken on camera about their own ASML position; the latest, : Bought. See it in the disclosed holdings →
- Tesla TSLARisk acknowledged-15.4%
- Netflix NFLXDisclosed buy-43.1%
- S&P Global SPGIDisclosed buy-10.8%
- Uber UBERDisclosed buy+2.0%
- Alphabet GOOGLHold, bullish+1.8%
- Amazon AMZNRisk acknowledged+18.1%
How to read this
Quotes are short excerpts from Joseph Carlson's public YouTube videos, attributed to the speaker and linked to the timestamp. “Close that day” is ASML's split-adjusted closing price on the day the video was published (New York time); if markets were closed that day, the last close before it. If the stock has split since a quote, the card shows the price it traded at that day and, beneath it, the split-adjusted close the % change uses. “Since” compares that close with the latest close on 2026-10-19. It is a price observation, not the creator's realized return, and not investment advice. How the price change is calculated. Next to it we show SPY, the ETF tracking the S&P 500, over the same two dates — so a move can be read against the market rather than on its own: why we compare with SPY. Each quote also carries a label — Named as a pick, Risk acknowledged, Reducing — describing what kind of statement it was: see what the labels mean.
Coverage: 116 of 116 videos published since 2025-09-10 covered; 493 ASML Holding mentions found. Prices as of 2026-10-19.
Independent record — not affiliated with or endorsed by Joseph Carlson. Request a correction or removal