Sven Carlin on MSFT
Sven Carlin on Microsoft (MSFT): the quotes, dated.
6 dated quotes about Microsoft stock (MSFT), selected from all 341 Sven Carlin videos published since 2025-09-10 — a selected record, not the complete history. Each links to the exact second on YouTube, with MSFT’s close that day and what the stock did since.
Every quote is reproduced word for word from the video and linked to the second it was said.
- MSFT close, 2026-10-19
- $533.52
- Price since the first quote, Mar 31, 2026
- +44.1%
- S&P 500 (SPY), same period
- +17.9%
- vs the S&P 500
- +26.2 pp
- Latest stance, Oct 4, 2026
- Valuation view
- Mentions found
- 141 in 53 of 341 videos
The short version
In March 2026 Sven Carlin said Microsoft was undervalued compared to the market, as they would not bet on its growth falling below double digits, yet described a declining-earnings scenario with P/E falling from 18 to 12 and called it too risky from a value investing perspective. In June 2026 Carlin judged Microsoft fairly priced for a 10% expected return. In August 2026, reviewing Bill Ackman's position, Carlin said if 70% of revenue growth came from two customers, it was too risky. In September 2026 they argued circular financing inflated Microsoft's reported cloud growth. In October 2026 Carlin called Microsoft's intrinsic value very low, doubting the growth was sustainable.
Summary of the quotes on this page. Updated .
What Sven Carlin said last · Oct 4, 2026
Valuation view
“If they grow even faster on a higher multiple, okay, but I don't believe the growth there is sustainable. It's all engineering AI. So for me, Microsoft is very low intrinsic value.”
No clear directional call
These quotes do not establish a clear bullish or bearish call.
MSFT from to . Price movement, not the creator’s realized return.
Price up since 6 of 6 quotes · Stock ahead of SPY: 6 of 6
Leaderboard result: Not scored (no clear directional call). How it is scored
Sven Carlin’s price target and valuation calls on MSFT
A price target, a fair-value estimate and a price worth buying at are different things. Each line below quotes which one was said, and when.
Valuation view
I could bet that market growth will not be at 14% per year over the next 3 years, but I would not bet on Microsoft's growth not being double digit over the next 3 years, which m…
Valuation view
And then, if we put probability, I don't know what will happen in the future, we can say that with a risk reward, Microsoft is fairly priced now for, let's say, a 10% return exp…
Valuation view
If they grow even faster on a higher multiple, okay, but I don't believe the growth there is sustainable. It's all engineering AI. So for me, Microsoft is very low intrinsic value.
Price and the calls
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
MSFT · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-09-15 → 2026-10-19 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | $518 |
| 2025-10-31 | $518 |
| 2025-11-28 | $492 |
| 2025-12-31 | $484 |
| 2026-01-30 | $430 |
| 2026-02-27 | $393 |
| 2026-03-31 | $370 |
| 2026-04-30 | $408 |
| 2026-05-29 | $450 |
| 2026-06-30 | $373 |
| 2026-07-31 | $465 |
| 2026-08-31 | $507 |
| 2026-09-30 | $513 |
| 2026-10-19 | $534 |
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
MSFT · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-09-15 → 2026-10-19 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | $518 |
| 2025-10-31 | $518 |
| 2025-11-28 | $492 |
| 2025-12-31 | $484 |
| 2026-01-30 | $430 |
| 2026-02-27 | $393 |
| 2026-03-31 | $370 |
| 2026-04-30 | $408 |
| 2026-05-29 | $450 |
| 2026-06-30 | $373 |
| 2026-07-31 | $465 |
| 2026-08-31 | $507 |
| 2026-09-30 | $513 |
| 2026-10-19 | $534 |
What Sven Carlin said, when
- 1
— Valuation view
3:31 “I could bet that market growth will not be at 14% per year over the next 3 years, but I would not bet on Microsoft's growth not being double digit over the next 3 years, which means that Microsoft is undervalued compared to the market.”
He was comparing Microsoft's P/E ratio of 22 with the market's 27 and its expected earnings growth with the market's.
- 2
— Risk acknowledged
7:22 “And that would be a very, very negative margin of safety scenario for Microsoft. So, we are not there from a value investing perspective. Therefore, for me, it's too risky.”
He was describing a scenario where earnings decline and the P/E ratio falls from 18 to 12.
- 3
— Valuation view
13:39 “And then, if we put probability, I don't know what will happen in the future, we can say that with a risk reward, Microsoft is fairly priced now for, let's say, a 10% return expected return discount rate.”
This followed his best-case, base-case and margin-of-safety intrinsic value scenarios for Microsoft.
- 4
— Risk acknowledged
3:53 “If 70% of revenues of growth are from just two customers, you understand the circle of financing. For me, it is too risky.”
He was reviewing Bill Ackman's Microsoft position and giving his own view of the AI-driven growth.
- 5
— Risk acknowledged
7:54 “If you look at Microsoft first, there is so much circular financing in their cloud businesses that they are reporting growth that isn't there because they are self-purchasing it.”
He was arguing that AI-related earnings growth is not real.
- 6
— Valuation view
14:49 “If they grow even faster on a higher multiple, okay, but I don't believe the growth there is sustainable. It's all engineering AI. So for me, Microsoft is very low intrinsic value.”
In his October 2026 quadrant update he said he was moving Microsoft back to the market-basket risk position.
No quote added since · 12 later videos from Sven Carlin · covers videos through
Other creators on MSFT
- Adam KhooNot buying more+6.5%
- Everything MoneyRisk acknowledged+16.0%
- Business with BrianValuation view+5.2%
- Joseph CarlsonValuation view+31.8%
- Jeremy LefebvreNamed as a pick+23.1%
- Daniel PronkMention+33.5%
- Tom NashValuation view+8.4%
More from Sven Carlin
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- Nike NKEAvoid-38.8%
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- Meta METAValuation view+22.8%
- Alibaba BABAConditional+14.2%
- Alphabet GOOGLAvoid+43.9%
How to read this
Quotes are short excerpts from Sven Carlin's public YouTube videos, attributed to the speaker and linked to the timestamp. “Close that day” is MSFT's split-adjusted closing price on the day the video was published (New York time); if markets were closed that day, the last close before it. If the stock has split since a quote, the card shows the price it traded at that day and, beneath it, the split-adjusted close the % change uses. “Since” compares that close with the latest close on 2026-10-19. It is a price observation, not the creator's realized return, and not investment advice. How the price change is calculated. Next to it we show SPY, the ETF tracking the S&P 500, over the same two dates — so a move can be read against the market rather than on its own: why we compare with SPY. Each quote also carries a label — Named as a pick, Risk acknowledged, Reducing — describing what kind of statement it was: see what the labels mean.
Coverage: 341 of 341 videos published since 2025-09-10 covered; 141 Microsoft mentions found. Prices as of 2026-10-19.
Independent record — not affiliated with or endorsed by Sven Carlin. Request a correction or removal