Sven Carlin on AMZN
Sven Carlin on Amazon (AMZN): the quotes, dated.
9 dated quotes about Amazon stock (AMZN), selected from all 345 Sven Carlin videos published since 2025-09-10 — a selected record, not the complete history. Each links to the exact second on YouTube, with AMZN’s close that day and what the stock did since.
Every quote is reproduced word for word from the video and linked to the second it was said.
- AMZN close, 2026-10-23
- $248.00
- Price since the first forecast, Apr 2, 2026
- +18.2%
- S&P 500 (SPY), same period
- +15.9%
- vs the S&P 500
- +2.3 pp
- Latest stance, Aug 27, 2026
- Conditional
- Mentions found
- 223 in 65 of 345 videos
The short version
In October 2025 Sven Carlin said they would buy Amazon at 1 trillion, but at 3 trillion it was about price. In December 2025 they cut their intrinsic value to 100 for stock-based compensation. In January 2026 they warned of a lower P/E in a recession. In February 2026 they were not buying personally, keeping 5% cash for "wow situations"; a further fall might qualify Amazon. In March 2026 they saw a 10% expected return. In April 2026 they suggested doubling the position if it fell lower. In May 2026, after a 40% rise, they called it a bit pricey. In August 2026 they were waiting for a recession to add it.
Summary of the quotes on this page. Updated .
What Sven Carlin said last · Aug 27, 2026
Conditional
“And when I look at Amazon, I'm waiting for that recession, for that ugliness, for that bad investment, something that goes wrong that say, "Oh, this was a mistake." But the underlying business staying healthy and that is the downside and that is all you need one year in the next 10 years to add a great business like Amazon to your portfolio.”
Bullish call · Price rose
The price rose since the first bullish quote.
AMZN from to . Price movement, not the creator’s realized return.
Price up since 7 of 9 quotes · Stock ahead of SPY: 4 of 9
Leaderboard result: Beat the market (6 months, → ). How it is scored
Sven Carlin’s price target and valuation calls on AMZN
A price target, a fair-value estimate and a price worth buying at are different things. Each line below quotes which one was said, and when.
Valuation view
Consequently, my intrinsic value just on the 1% stockbased compensation is 10% lower at 100, not at 110.
Valuation view
If you look at Amazon valuation, the earnings, if we estimate 12% and 10% growth rates going forward from that business, the present value is at 200, the price is at 200. So, yo…
Valuation view
I think Amazon is market risk, perhaps a little bit less, P/E ratio 30, and the growth still giving 8% likely long-term returns. This is a conservative basis, if Amazon delivers…
Valuation view
Now, the stock is 40% up. So, I will put here for a long-term good 7% return. Nothing wrong with Amazon, but perhaps a bit pricey.
Price and the calls
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
AMZN · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-09-18 → 2026-10-23 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | $220 |
| 2025-10-31 | $244 |
| 2025-11-28 | $233 |
| 2025-12-31 | $231 |
| 2026-01-30 | $239 |
| 2026-02-27 | $210 |
| 2026-03-31 | $208 |
| 2026-04-30 | $265 |
| 2026-05-29 | $271 |
| 2026-06-30 | $238 |
| 2026-07-31 | $272 |
| 2026-08-31 | $260 |
| 2026-09-30 | $249 |
| 2026-10-23 | $248 |
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
AMZN · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-09-18 → 2026-10-23 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | $220 |
| 2025-10-31 | $244 |
| 2025-11-28 | $233 |
| 2025-12-31 | $231 |
| 2026-01-30 | $239 |
| 2026-02-27 | $210 |
| 2026-03-31 | $208 |
| 2026-04-30 | $265 |
| 2026-05-29 | $271 |
| 2026-06-30 | $238 |
| 2026-07-31 | $272 |
| 2026-08-31 | $260 |
| 2026-09-30 | $249 |
| 2026-10-23 | $248 |
What Sven Carlin said, when
- 1
— Conditional
5:44 “If Amazon would be trading now at 1 trillion, I would buy it. At 3 trillion, it's just a matter of price.”
In an interview about value investing during the AI boom, he recalled that Amazon had traded at 1 trillion a few years earlier and compared that with its current valuation.
- 2
— Valuation view
3:52 “Consequently, my intrinsic value just on the 1% stockbased compensation is 10% lower at 100, not at 110.”
Carlin was estimating Amazon's intrinsic value with 8% growth and a P/E of 20 in 10 years. He then lowered it to account for share dilution from stock-based compensation.
- 3
— Risk acknowledged
3:39 “A company that will likely keep on doing well in a recession is still Amazon, because it's Amazon. The thing that might happen is it might not have a P/E ratio of 35, 43, but P/E ratio of 20, 30% down.”
He was going through how a recession might affect the companies on his value investing quadrant.
- 4
— Conditional
9:12 “Will I buy it now? Let's first discuss my portfolios. For my personal portfolio, no, because I have better in the model portfolio. I have 5% cash and I'm leaving that for wow situations. So if Amazon goes even lower and then it might become a wow situation that would make it interested with the diversified portfolio.”
This was in a video about well-known value investors starting or adding to Amazon positions.
- 5
— Valuation view
26:15 “If you look at Amazon valuation, the earnings, if we estimate 12% and 10% growth rates going forward from that business, the present value is at 200, the price is at 200. So, you can expect a 10% expected return going forward for Amazon.”
This came up in a review of his risk and reward quadrant, where he put Amazon next to other large tech stocks.
- 6
— Buying the dip
9:11 “And that's why it is interesting already now. Then if it goes lower, you double your position and enjoy the next decade.”
He was taking another look at the Magnificent 7 after prices had fallen, and noted that Amazon was about 40 dollars lower.
- 7
— Valuation view
11:27 “I think Amazon is market risk, perhaps a little bit less, P/E ratio 30, and the growth still giving 8% likely long-term returns. This is a conservative basis, if Amazon delivers in the next 3 to 5 years, you can expect 10 to 15% returns.”
He was comparing Amazon with Nike, General Mills and Constellation Software, which had fallen in price, and placing them on his value investment quadrant.
- 8
— Valuation view
12:33 “Now, the stock is 40% up. So, I will put here for a long-term good 7% return. Nothing wrong with Amazon, but perhaps a bit pricey.”
He was updating where Amazon sits on his value investing quadrant.
- 9
— Conditional
8:20 “And when I look at Amazon, I'm waiting for that recession, for that ugliness, for that bad investment, something that goes wrong that say, "Oh, this was a mistake." But the underlying business staying healthy and that is the downside and that is all you need one year in the next 10 years to add a great business like Amazon to your portfolio.”
Just before this, he called Amazon fairly priced for about an 8% return and a good buy, but said he looks for great buys.
No quote added since · 50 later videos from Sven Carlin · covers videos through
Other creators on AMZN
- Daniel PronkDisclosed buy-2.7%
- Business with BrianNamed as a pick-5.5%
- Joseph CarlsonRisk acknowledged+11.6%
- Jeremy LefebvreHold, bullish+0.6%
- Everything MoneyConditional+13.7%
- Adam KhooValuation view+7.2%
- Tom NashBuying the dip+24.8%
More from Sven Carlin
All 11 companies →- Adobe ADBERisk acknowledged+5.8%
- Nike NKEAvoid-38.7%
- ASML ASMLValuation view+67.9%
- Berkshire BRK-BValuation view+12.6%
- Meta METAValuation view+11.9%
- Microsoft MSFTValuation view+41.7%
How to read this
Quotes are short excerpts from Sven Carlin's public YouTube videos, attributed to the speaker and linked to the timestamp. “Close that day” is AMZN's split-adjusted closing price on the day the video was published (New York time); if markets were closed that day, the last close before it. If the stock has split since a quote, the card shows the price it traded at that day and, beneath it, the split-adjusted close the % change uses. “Since” compares that close with the latest close on 2026-10-23. It is a price observation, not the creator's realized return, and not investment advice. How the price change is calculated. Next to it we show SPY, the ETF tracking the S&P 500, over the same two dates — so a move can be read against the market rather than on its own: why we compare with SPY. Each quote also carries a label — Named as a pick, Risk acknowledged, Reducing — describing what kind of statement it was: see what the labels mean.
Coverage: 345 of 345 videos published since 2025-09-10 covered; 223 Amazon mentions found. Prices as of 2026-10-23.
Independent record — not affiliated with or endorsed by Sven Carlin. Request a correction or removal