Sven Carlin on BRK-B
Sven Carlin on Berkshire (BRK-B): the quotes, dated.
12 dated quotes about Berkshire stock (BRK-B), selected from all 341 Sven Carlin videos published since 2025-09-10 — a selected record, not the complete history. Each links to the exact second on YouTube, with BRK-B’s close that day and what the stock did since.
Every quote is reproduced word for word from the video and linked to the second it was said.
- BRK-B close, 2026-10-19
- $532.23
- Price since the first forecast, Mar 3, 2026
- +10.6%
- S&P 500 (SPY), same period
- +12.7%
- vs the S&P 500
- -2.1 pp
- Latest stance, Oct 4, 2026
- Valuation view
- Mentions found
- 377 in 64 of 341 videos
The short version
In September 2025 Sven Carlin called Berkshire a great business with a risky five-year outlook. In October 2025 they wanted a lower price to buy, and in November 2025 put intrinsic value near 750 billion. In December 2025 they warned of zero-return risk; in February 2026 they called it pricey. In March 2026 they preferred it over the S&P 500 and reran their valuation past 1.1 trillion. In June 2026 they cited a possible 50% loss and a 6% safe return, and in July 2026 a proper valuation near 600 billion. In August 2026 the opportunity cost seemed too big; in October 2026 they called it a relative sell.
Summary of the quotes on this page. Updated .
What Sven Carlin said last · Oct 4, 2026
Valuation view
“I said when compared to other opportunities, Berkshire is now a sell because when you look at the net income of 45 billion, the likely growth of 6% going ahead and an average still positive P ratio of 17, then if they make 80 billion in 10 years in profits times 17, the market cap will be 1.3 trillion. Not far from where it is now.”
Bullish call · Price rose
The price rose since the first bullish quote.
BRK-B from to . Price movement, not the creator’s realized return.
Price up since 12 of 12 quotes · Stock ahead of SPY: 5 of 12
Leaderboard result: Lagged the market (6 months, → ). How it is scored
Sven Carlin’s price target and valuation calls on BRK-B
A price target, a fair-value estimate and a price worth buying at are different things. Each line below quotes which one was said, and when.
Valuation view
Berkshire I just told you. Yes, it's a great business, but it will not give a good long-term return. Five years risky outlook.
Valuation view
And if I sum that up, intrinsic value of Berkshire for a good 7 to 10% return for investors is around 750 billion.
Valuation view
Now, is Berkshire a sell? Yes, it is pricey, therefore it leads to a low return, thus risky.
Valuation view
If I lower it from 10 to 7%, that's the intrinsic value already at almost 900 billion. Add 200 billion of stocks and you're already past 1.1 trillion.
Valuation view
But, if we go to a margin of safety, we can add the cash here for a margin of safety. We are still at 600 billion, something like that, for a proper valuation of Berkshire. So,…
Valuation view
I said when compared to other opportunities, Berkshire is now a sell because when you look at the net income of 45 billion, the likely growth of 6% going ahead and an average st…
Price and the calls
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
BRK-B · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-08-27 → 2026-10-19 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-29 | $503 |
| 2025-09-30 | $503 |
| 2025-10-31 | $478 |
| 2025-11-28 | $514 |
| 2025-12-31 | $503 |
| 2026-01-30 | $481 |
| 2026-02-27 | $505 |
| 2026-03-31 | $479 |
| 2026-04-30 | $474 |
| 2026-05-29 | $474 |
| 2026-06-30 | $500 |
| 2026-07-31 | $512 |
| 2026-08-31 | $504 |
| 2026-09-30 | $498 |
| 2026-10-19 | $532 |
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
BRK-B · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-08-27 → 2026-10-19 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-29 | $503 |
| 2025-09-30 | $503 |
| 2025-10-31 | $478 |
| 2025-11-28 | $514 |
| 2025-12-31 | $503 |
| 2026-01-30 | $481 |
| 2026-02-27 | $505 |
| 2026-03-31 | $479 |
| 2026-04-30 | $474 |
| 2026-05-29 | $474 |
| 2026-06-30 | $500 |
| 2026-07-31 | $512 |
| 2026-08-31 | $504 |
| 2026-09-30 | $498 |
| 2026-10-19 | $532 |
What Sven Carlin said, when
- 1
— Valuation view
15:40 “Berkshire I just told you. Yes, it's a great business, but it will not give a good long-term return. Five years risky outlook.”
Reviewing a viewer's stock-based retirement portfolio that holds Berkshire alongside Nestle and other companies.
- 2
— Conditional
11:47 “I love Berkshire. It's the best business out there. I'll buy it, too. Just give it to me at a little lower price.”
He called Berkshire low risk but low reward at the current price and said he was waiting for the right price.
- 3
— Valuation view
8:57 “And if I sum that up, intrinsic value of Berkshire for a good 7 to 10% return for investors is around 750 billion.”
He compared this estimate with a market capitalization of 1.3 trillion and called Berkshire overvalued.
- 4
— Risk acknowledged
1:39 “So, it is definitely better than the S&P 500 now, but there is the risk that you have zero returns from Berkshire just on valuation compression over the next decade.”
He was reviewing a viewer's portfolio that was about half in Berkshire, and he valued Berkshire at a P/E range of 10 to 20.
- 5
— Valuation view
4:12 “Now, is Berkshire a sell? Yes, it is pricey, therefore it leads to a low return, thus risky.”
He said a price-to-book ratio of 1.40 was above the level at which Buffett had said he would do buybacks.
- 6
— Named as a pick
19:17 “If you have S&P 500, all these crazy companies betting on AI, I think Berkshire is much better for long-term security, safety, compounding, even at these crazy prices.”
He was concluding an analysis of Berkshire's expected long-term returns and its opportunity cost.
- 7
— Valuation view
2:36 “If I lower it from 10 to 7%, that's the intrinsic value already at almost 900 billion. Add 200 billion of stocks and you're already past 1.1 trillion.”
Discussing Greg Abel's statement that Berkshire trades below intrinsic value and his restart of buybacks, Carlin reran his intrinsic value model using a 7% discount rate instead of 10%.
- 8
— Risk acknowledged
5:51 “Where the risk now of owning Berkshire, you can see a loss of 50% or you can get a 7% long-term return.”
He had just run a worst-case scenario with 5% growth and a terminal P/E of 12, which gave an intrinsic value of 425 billion against a market cap of about 1 trillion.
- 9
— Named as a pick
6:54 “So, that's why I have here Berkshire now on my quadrant, 6% very safe return. I think it's better than 98% of other investments out there.”
He estimated long-term returns of 3 to 9% depending on the future P/E ratio.
- 10
— Valuation view
13:00 “But, if we go to a margin of safety, we can add the cash here for a margin of safety. We are still at 600 billion, something like that, for a proper valuation of Berkshire. So, that's 40% down.”
In his July 2026 value quadrant update, he compared a valuation using 6% growth and a terminal multiple of 17 with Berkshire's market cap of about $1 trillion.
- 11
— Avoid
11:32 “For me, personally, the opportunity cost of investing in Berkshire now at 5% is too big for the opportunities that I have that are in the double digits.”
He was concluding a video in which he said he would sell Berkshire if he owned it. He called it a safe, great business but said its upside was not enough for him.
- 12
— Valuation view
10:05 “I said when compared to other opportunities, Berkshire is now a sell because when you look at the net income of 45 billion, the likely growth of 6% going ahead and an average still positive P ratio of 17, then if they make 80 billion in 10 years in profits times 17, the market cap will be 1.3 trillion. Not far from where it is now.”
In his October 2026 quadrant update, he refers back to a recent analysis that drew criticism and explains why he considers Berkshire's market cap of almost 1 trillion risky.
No quote added since · 12 later videos from Sven Carlin · covers videos through
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How to read this
Quotes are short excerpts from Sven Carlin's public YouTube videos, attributed to the speaker and linked to the timestamp. “Close that day” is BRK-B's split-adjusted closing price on the day the video was published (New York time); if markets were closed that day, the last close before it. If the stock has split since a quote, the card shows the price it traded at that day and, beneath it, the split-adjusted close the % change uses. “Since” compares that close with the latest close on 2026-10-19. It is a price observation, not the creator's realized return, and not investment advice. How the price change is calculated. Next to it we show SPY, the ETF tracking the S&P 500, over the same two dates — so a move can be read against the market rather than on its own: why we compare with SPY. Each quote also carries a label — Named as a pick, Risk acknowledged, Reducing — describing what kind of statement it was: see what the labels mean.
Coverage: 341 of 341 videos published since 2025-09-10 covered; 377 Berkshire Hathaway mentions found. Prices as of 2026-10-19.
Independent record — not affiliated with or endorsed by Sven Carlin. Request a correction or removal