Joseph Carlson on Nvidia (NVDA): the quotes, dated.
13 dated quotes about Nvidia stock (NVDA), selected from all 116 Joseph Carlson videos published since 2025-09-10 — a selected record, not the complete history. Each links to the exact second on YouTube, with NVDA’s close that day and what the stock did since.
Every quote is reproduced word for word from the video and linked to the second it was said.
- NVDA close, 2026-10-19
- $217.09
- Price since the first forecast, Feb 26, 2026
- +17.4%
- S&P 500 (SPY), same period
- +11.2%
- vs the S&P 500
- +6.2 pp
- Latest stance, May 26, 2026
- Risk acknowledged
- Mentions found
- 405 in 59 of 116 videos
The short version
In September 2025 Joseph Carlson said Nvidia's growth came from three to four companies. In October 2025 they called its earnings hard to predict. In November 2025 they said they had not owned Nvidia and did not plan to. In December 2025 they named Google's TPUs a lasting risk, preferred ASML, and called Nvidia premium valued but not too overvalued. In February 2026 they did not hold it but expected it to go higher. In April 2026 they flagged rival chips from Google and Amazon. In May 2026 they called a 24 P/E hard to lose with, saw investors looking past Nvidia, and expected hyperscalers to gain power via custom chips.
Summary of the quotes on this page. Updated .
What Joseph Carlson said last · May 26, 2026
Risk acknowledged
“The sellers of AI in phase one are the Nvidias, the TS Ms, HBM, Broadcom, power cooling suppliers, all those companies, the construction companies, the Caterpillars, all of those have the pricing power today. In phase three, which we'll get to I think in a couple years, the hyperscalers gain power by using custom chips”
Bullish call · Price rose
The price rose since the first bullish quote.
NVDA from to . Price movement, not the creator’s realized return.
Price up since 12 of 13 quotes · Stock ahead of SPY: 8 of 13
Leaderboard result: Beat the market (6 months, → ). Scored from the first close after the video, . How it is scored
Joseph Carlson’s price target and valuation calls on NVDA
A price target, a fair-value estimate and a price worth buying at are different things. Each line below quotes which one was said, and when.
Valuation view
So the company today, I think, is I I believe it's premium valued. Nvidia is not so overvalued that you can't get positive returns.
Valuation view
With a low 24 PE, it is difficult to see how you lose with Nvidia here.
Price and the calls
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
NVDA · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-08-11 → 2026-10-19 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-29 | $174 |
| 2025-09-30 | $187 |
| 2025-10-31 | $202 |
| 2025-11-28 | $177 |
| 2025-12-31 | $187 |
| 2026-01-30 | $191 |
| 2026-02-27 | $177 |
| 2026-03-31 | $174 |
| 2026-04-30 | $200 |
| 2026-05-29 | $211 |
| 2026-06-30 | $200 |
| 2026-07-31 | $201 |
| 2026-08-31 | $221 |
| 2026-09-30 | $228 |
| 2026-10-19 | $217 |
Use the left and right arrow keys to explore daily closing prices, Home and End for the first and last date, and Escape to dismiss the price tooltip. Tab to a numbered marker and press Enter to jump to its quote. Month-end prices are also available in the table below.
NVDA · daily close, split-adjusted · 2025-08-11 → 2026-10-19 · source: Yahoo Finance
Table view: month-end closes
| Month end | Close |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-29 | $174 |
| 2025-09-30 | $187 |
| 2025-10-31 | $202 |
| 2025-11-28 | $177 |
| 2025-12-31 | $187 |
| 2026-01-30 | $191 |
| 2026-02-27 | $177 |
| 2026-03-31 | $174 |
| 2026-04-30 | $200 |
| 2026-05-29 | $211 |
| 2026-06-30 | $200 |
| 2026-07-31 | $201 |
| 2026-08-31 | $221 |
| 2026-09-30 | $228 |
| 2026-10-19 | $217 |
What Joseph Carlson said, when
- 1
— Mention
16:02 “Virtually all of Nvidia's growth over the past 2 years has come from three to four companies. It's highly concentrated into a select few companies.”
He was comparing Oracle's sudden backlog growth with Nvidia's data center growth, which he said came from a few large customers.
- 2
— Risk acknowledged
27:56 “It's very difficult to predict the earnings and future revenue growth of an Nvidia.”
He was contrasting Nvidia's earnings visibility with Costco's while discussing comparisons of their valuations, and raised the possibility of competitors and hyperscalers' custom chips.
- 3
— Avoid
26:35 “I haven't owned Nvidia and I've never owned Palunteer. So, these are all companies that I'm not in currently and they're ones that I don't plan to get in in the future.”
Discussing Michael Burry's short positions and capex depreciation concerns, he said his own portfolio felt more insulated from these problems than Nvidia and Palantir.
- 4
— Risk acknowledged
20:41 “At the same time, I believe that Nvidia probably has so much demand right now that it doesn't really matter anyway. Nvidia is going to continue to be able to sell their GPUs at a very high margin, but this is always been a risk that I feel has existed for Nvidia.”
He was discussing Google's TPUs and its software efforts as a possible challenge to Nvidia's hardware and CUDA moat.
- 5
— Mention
22:18 “So, when I'm looking at my hardware play, the company that I want to invest in that's the gatekeeper of the AI revolution, I continue to pick ASML over Nvidia.”
He said he disliked that much of Nvidia's revenue comes from customers building their own chips, and that ASML's customers are not trying to replace it.
- 6
— Valuation view
18:12 “So the company today, I think, is I I believe it's premium valued. Nvidia is not so overvalued that you can't get positive returns.”
In a DCF review of popular stocks, he modeled several free cash flow growth scenarios for Nvidia and said most of them still produce a positive return if it keeps a reasonable multiple.
- 7
— Mention
3:51 “I do not hold Nvidia, Tesla, or Apple. Those ones I'm not quite as bullish on as these ones, but these are the ones that are under scrutiny right now.”
Reviewing his Mag 7 exposure, he said he owns Meta, Google, Microsoft and Amazon but not Nvidia, Tesla or Apple.
- 8
— Named as a pick
13:48 “With what I see with Nvidia's stock and the way that it's performing, I think it's a matter of time until this thing moves up more. I I think Nvidia's going higher from here. It's a company that I I don't have in my portfolio.”
Discussing Nvidia's latest earnings report and Jensen Huang's comments; he notes he has never invested in Nvidia and has favored the hyperscalers.
- 9
— Risk acknowledged
35:00 “So, having Anthropic train on Google and on Amazon shows that literally the best models with the highest impact in the world can be trained on direct competitors to Nvidia.”
He was disagreeing with Jensen Huang's description of Anthropic's use of non-Nvidia chips as a one-off event.
- 10
— Risk acknowledged
18:34 “Whether or not Google is saying that they're going after Nvidia, this clearly has implications for Nvidia.”
He was discussing Google's new TPU chips and the incentive large customers have to reduce what they pay Nvidia.
- 11
— Valuation view
15:15 “With a low 24 PE, it is difficult to see how you lose with Nvidia here.”
Commenting after a clip in which Brad Gerstner called Nvidia his top pick and said it was under-owned and undervalued.
- 12
— Mention
15:47 “Nvidia's posting numbers that make every other company look weak by contrast. So investors are looking past Nvidia right now. They're going to all these secondary companies. We can see those ones racing up as well. And it seems like Nvidia is getting left behind.”
Discussing Nvidia's record quarterly earnings report, including revenue of $82 billion and nearly $50 billion in free cash flow, and the stock's reaction.
- 13
— Risk acknowledged
11:45 “The sellers of AI in phase one are the Nvidias, the TS Ms, HBM, Broadcom, power cooling suppliers, all those companies, the construction companies, the Caterpillars, all of those have the pricing power today. In phase three, which we'll get to I think in a couple years, the hyperscalers gain power by using custom chips”
Outlining his five-year investing plan, in which he describes AI phases where pricing power shifts from the sellers of AI to the hyperscaler buyers.
No quote added since · 37 later videos from Joseph Carlson · covers videos through
Also disclosed on the portfolio page
Joseph Carlson’s own NVDA trades from videos this timeline does not quote. They are listed, not counted: the price change and the call record above use the quotes only.
— Not holding
“I don't own any Tesla, I don't own Nvidia, I don't own any Micron or any of those that are also in the index.”
Other creators on NVDA
- Tom NashBuying the dip+23.2%
- Adam KhooValuation view+16.6%
- Chris SainBuying the dip+9.3%
- Daniel PronkValuation view+4.9%
- Business with BrianValuation view+15.7%
- Everything MoneyMention+9.1%
More from Joseph Carlson
All 16 companies →Joseph Carlson has spoken on camera about their own NVDA position; the latest, : Not holding. See it in the disclosed holdings →
- Tesla TSLARisk acknowledged-15.4%
- Netflix NFLXDisclosed buy-43.1%
- S&P Global SPGIDisclosed buy-10.8%
- Uber UBERDisclosed buy+2.0%
- Alphabet GOOGLHold, bullish+1.8%
- Amazon AMZNRisk acknowledged+18.1%
How to read this
Quotes are short excerpts from Joseph Carlson's public YouTube videos, attributed to the speaker and linked to the timestamp. “Close that day” is NVDA's split-adjusted closing price on the day the video was published (New York time); if markets were closed that day, the last close before it. If the stock has split since a quote, the card shows the price it traded at that day and, beneath it, the split-adjusted close the % change uses. “Since” compares that close with the latest close on 2026-10-19. It is a price observation, not the creator's realized return, and not investment advice. How the price change is calculated. Next to it we show SPY, the ETF tracking the S&P 500, over the same two dates — so a move can be read against the market rather than on its own: why we compare with SPY. Each quote also carries a label — Named as a pick, Risk acknowledged, Reducing — describing what kind of statement it was: see what the labels mean.
Coverage: 116 of 116 videos published since 2025-09-10 covered; 405 Nvidia mentions found. Prices as of 2026-10-19.
Independent record — not affiliated with or endorsed by Joseph Carlson. Request a correction or removal